Loot Drop Probability Calculator
Calculate the probability of getting at least one drop based on drop rate and number of attempts.
Plan your farming sessions.
Drop Probability
Loot drop probability calculates your chance of receiving at least one drop over multiple attempts.
P(at least one drop) = 1 - (1 - Drop Rate)^Attempts
This uses the complement rule — it’s easier to calculate the chance of getting zero drops and subtract from 1.
Key insights:
- A 1% drop rate does NOT guarantee a drop in 100 attempts — you only have a 63.4% chance
- For a 95% chance of getting a 1% drop, you need about 299 attempts
- For a 99% chance of getting a 1% drop, you need about 459 attempts
- Doubling the attempts does not double your probability
The “unlucky” threshold: If you haven’t gotten a drop after ln(0.05) / ln(1 - rate) attempts, you’re in the unluckiest 5% of players.